Communicating uncertainty: framing effects on responses to vague probabilities

Article Abstract:

Negative framing can result to more positive beliefs concerning uncertain probabilities and to higher preference to vague probability options. Generally, people prefer precision that is modified by negative framing. It was also found that people tend to be more risk seeking when the problem is negatively framed because losses are perceived to be more significant than gains. However, interpretation of uncertainty information may be influenced by established prior beliefs and motivations.

Behavior Theory, Models, Management, Human behavior, Information theory, Uncertainty (Information theory)

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The relative importance of probabilities, outcomes, and vagueness in hazard risk decisions

Article Abstract:

A validation experiment confirmed studies that decision makers favor specified values over imprecise values, and in the study, the conclusion is applicable both to probabilities of loss and the actual magnitude of loss. An additional finding of the study showed that even if the probability of loss or risk is small, decision makers will still opt for a precise measure, and hold on to that precise measure to make a decision on other aspects of a problem with a vague measure of risk.

Group Dynamics, Psychological aspects, Human resource management, Beliefs, opinions and attitudes, Interpersonal relations, Probabilities, Probability theory, Social groups, Ambiguity

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Variable pay as a risky choice: determinants of the relative attractiveness of incentive plans

Article Abstract:

The psychology underlying reactions to variable pay plans using experimentally manipulated factors based on a behavioral decision making perspective is examined. The study discuses on the implications for designing compensation plans and employee recruitment and retention.

Science & research, Wage Administration, Compensation management, Risk-taking (Psychology), Risk taking

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