Determinants of overconfidence and miscalibration: the roles of random error and ecological structure

Article Abstract:

A mathematical model was created to examine overconfidence involving the soundness of data employed by an individual and calibration. Calibration refers to the proportion of questions answered correctly as against the individual's prediction of the outcomes of answered test questions. Analysis indicates that some subjects have a pronounced psychological predisposition toward reporting high levels of confidence, while others exhibit a marked psychological predisposition toward underconfidence.

Expectation (Psychology), Expectations

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Towards a consensus on overconfidence

Article Abstract:

A greater understanding of confidence judgments and potentially greater consensus about the meaning of confidence judgments can be achieved through protocol analysis which would identify deliberate strategies in these tasks. The analysis could both be conducted on their perceptions of the meaning of the different tasks and their strategic use of the confidence scale. It can also be achieved through an increased focus on underlying processes that are neither deliberate nor intentional.

Analysis

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Policy capturing with Ridge regression

Article Abstract:

Judgement policy equations are human judgement processes translated into algebraic models. This process of translation is called policy capturing. Its models facilitate insight into a person's cognitive processes and are used as tools in learning and training programs and in actuarial predictions. The most effective policy capturing process uses the smart ridge regression. Findings show consistently superior performance of the model.

Decision-making, Decision making, Usage, Regression analysis, Critical thinking

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