Equilibrium real exchange rates

Article Abstract:

The effect of the real exchnage rate on macroeconomic equilibrium in the British economy is examined using the concept of the Supply-Side Equilibrium Exchange Rate (SEER). As the real price of domestic output at equilibrium, the SEER is closely related to the equilibrium rate of unemployment, seen from a supply-side analysis. Determinants of the SEER are used to analyze the inflationary implications of the European Monetary System on the UK market. Parity between supply-side and external equilibrium exchange rates keeps down domestic inflation.

Prices and rates, Foreign exchange, Foreign exchange rates, Macroeconomics, Equilibrium (Economics)

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How to make money in the bond market: international evidence of inefficiency and what it suggests about the way markets view monetary policy

Article Abstract:

The performance of long-term bond markets in the US, UK and Germany is analyzed in terms of efficiency and impact of monetary policy. Results show that such markets are generally inefficient as evidenced by trading rules which provide higher returns than bonds and the generally weak forecasts of bond price changes. While monetary policy tended to stabilize interest rates, the non-recognition by bond markets of this particular role generated inefficiency.

Financial markets, Monetary policy, Credit market, Credit markets

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Hedging inflation and income risks

Article Abstract:

The creation of markets to take care of long-term inflation and national income flows is discussed. One such market is the indexed bond market which has been applied in a few advanced economies. It is argued that it ought to be a public policy to establish such markets as risk hedgers. Of the markets discussed, those that deal with national income flows appear to be more important than those that aim to cope with inflationary pressures.

Risk management, National income

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