The over-optimism among experts in assessment and foresight

Article Abstract:

German 1993 and Austrian 1998 Technology Delphis were used to answer questions related to the foresight exercises being established on the basis of top-expert assessments or on the assessments of a less specialized expert and the suitability of the method of self-rating of experts as they displayed a high degree of optimism. The results of the test indicated that the panel should consist of experts from different fields, having different grades, knowledge and affiliation while performing foresight exercises.

Austria, Market Research, Market Research & Product Development, Marketing research, Delphi technique

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Foresight as a survival characteristic: when (if ever) does the long view pay?

Article Abstract:

The basic discounting strategy used in the cost-benefit analyses of long-range research and development and capital investment projects can result in very poor social decisions. Time preference cannot be assumed to be practically equivalent to a compound interest function. A more general approach is suggested and sample applications in different areas such as energy policy and environmental protection are presented.

Capital investments, Cost benefit analysis, Discounted cash flow

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Evaluation of national foresight activities: assessing rationale, process and impact

Article Abstract:

A study examining national foresight activities in various situations using the examples of foresight programs of United Kingdom, Germany and Hungary is presented.

United Kingdom, Government domestic functions, Hungary, Asset & Risk Management, Risk management, Domestic policy, Government programs

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