Egocentrism and focalism in unrealistic optimism (and pessimism)

Article Abstract:

A research suggests that when people compare their likelihood of experiencing an event with that of the average person, they focus on their own chances of experiencing the event and insufficiently consider the likelihood of the average person experiencing the event. The results show that the tendency to focus on one's own rather event than the average person's likelihood of experiencing an event engendered systematic unrealistic pessimism.

Optimism, Risk perception, Pessimism

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If you don't want to be late, enumerate: unpacking reduces the planning fallacy

Article Abstract:

The hypothesis that unpacking tasks into its subcomponents should increase completion time estimates and as a result, decrease the planning fallacy is tested. Five experiments were conducted in which the participants were asked to estimate the time they would take to complete one of several multifaceted tasks by unpacking the holistic task into specific components of the task.

Forecasting

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The effort heuristic

Article Abstract:

A study was conducted to provide higher ratings of quality, value, and liking for the work. Studies indicate that effort-based judgments of quality are common, and reflect a more general judgmental tendency, which is termed as heuristic.

Decision-making, Decision making, Cognition

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