Measurement errors in probability judgments

Article Abstract:

The psychometric characteristics of three subjective uncertainty measures are examined. One of these measures is a zero-to-hundred probability scale while the other two are seven-point rating scales. For the study, the term 'subjective uncertainty' is used to refer to a belief about a statement or an event. The study seeks to determine the reliability and systematic method errors of the tools designed to measure this construct. Its main findings indicate that the reliability of rating scales is comparable to that of subjective probability scales. In fact, the results show that a seven-point rating scale can not only perform as well as the subjective probability scale in quantifying uncertainty with respect to reliability and low method variance, it can even do better.

Methods, Analysis, Measurement, Error analysis (Mathematics), Psychological tests, Uncertainty, Judgments, Judgments (Law), Error analysis

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Turkey's deepening divides

Article Abstract:

The deep cultural and socioeconomic divisions in Turkey are reflected in the several different worlds which exist within Istanbul. Istanbul is thriving, with a booming stock market, but it also has its slums. The educational divide may be widened by the growth of private universities which teach in French and English.

Social aspects, Column, Turkey, Istanbul, Turkey (City)

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Hillary bounces back

Article Abstract:

An interview with First Lady Hillary Clinton is presented. She discusses her ability to keep motivated in the face of criticism, her desire to become a member of the US Senate and the pressure of the media.

Interview, Presidents, First ladies, Clinton, Hillary Rodham

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