Increased El Nino frequency in a climate model forced by future greenhouse warming

Article Abstract:

A 'flux corrected' global climate model using a meridional resolution of 0.5 degrees in the tropics has been used to simulate an irregular El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. It has been possible to establish by forcing this model by a realistic future scenario of rising greenhouse-gas concentrations that the most significant change in the mean state of the tropical Pacific Ocean-atmosphere system affecting the ENSO statistics seems to be the strengthening of the equatorial thermocline. It is anticipated that the tropical Pacific climate system will experience strong changes if emissions of greenhouse gases continue to rise.

Models, Forecasts and trends, Environmental aspects, Global warming, Climatic changes, Climate change

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Abrupt termination of the 1997-98 El Nino in response to a Madden-Julian oscillation

Article Abstract:

A precipitation system linked with an extremely strong Madden-Julian oscillation travelling around the Equator in May 1998 was associated with a sudden intensification of the easterly trade winds over the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. These strong winds played a role in the accelerated ending of the 1997 to 1998 El Nino event. The May 1998 event highlights the importance of multi-scale interactions within the climate system. Further research is required in this area.

Research

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