Long odds on prediction

Article Abstract:

Earthquakes are hard to predict because either detectable and reliable empirical precursors do generally exist, but current instrumentation cannot measure them, or the physics of earthquakes is too sensitive to small fluctuations to produce reliable precursors. In the absence of reliable prediction methods, it is best to concentrate on hazard mitigation based on a better understanding of earthquake source mechanisms, their statistical properties, the propagation of seismic waves and the response of individual sites, buildings and infrastructure to seismic vibrations.

Earthquake prediction

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Earthquake scaling

Article Abstract:

A cumulative frequency distribution for earthquakes can be devised that allows large-scale earth movements to be differentiated from small-scale movements. The technique yields a tectonically conformed plot of the frequency-magnitude distribution applied to the Southern California Earthquake Catalogue for the 1932-72 period. In addition, the technique is advantageous because it permits compensation for seismic hazard estimation in a manner that follows deterministic geological and tectonic constraints, on time periods in excess of 100 years.

Methods, Seismological research

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A hand on the aftershock trigger

Article Abstract:

Static stress change associated with an earthquake mainshock is the prime mover of its aftershocks but new findings indicate a wave-surfing dynamic stress. A global study, based on a representative sample of earthquakes with known fault-plane orientations in the Centroid Moment Tensor catalogue, found that only 61% of the triggered events occurred in areas of increase Coulomb stress.

United Kingdom, Science & research, Research, Faults (Geology), Coulomb's law

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