Rumblings grow about Parkfield in wake of first earthquake prediction
Article Abstract:
The US Geological Survey's (USGS) first attempt at forecasting an earthquake was deemed a valuable exercise even though no tremblor took place. USGS had estimated a 37% chance that a magnitude six earthquake would shake the region around Parkfield, CA, sometime within 72 hours after the start of Oct 19, 1992. The forecast was a part of the Parkfield Prediction Experiment that USGS started in 1985. However, USGS's effort has been attacked both for basing predictions on faulty statistics and for being a waste of research funds.
Publication Name: Nature
Subject: Zoology and wildlife conservation
ISSN: 0028-0836
Year: 1992
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Fluid-mediated influence of adjacent thrusting on the seismic cycle at Parkfield
Article Abstract:
A model attributes the nonoccurrences of expected earthquakes to the effect of adjacent thrusting or the rate of weakening of fault from increasing pore pressures within the fault zone, on the seismic cycle. The model shows a correlation in space and time of calculated and observed earthquake hypocenters. Seismicity patterns from 1969-95 may be explained in terms of decreased compaction rates caused due to adjacent thrusting. The model may be used for other linked thrust/strike-slip fault systems.
Publication Name: Nature
Subject: Zoology and wildlife conservation
ISSN: 0028-0836
Year: 1996
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Chemistry prize
Article Abstract:
Rudolph Marcus of the California Institute of Technology has been awarded the 1992 Nobel Prize in chemistry for his theoretical elucidation of electron-transfer reactions. His prediction of the counter-intuitive, parabolic relationship between a reaction's driving force and its rate, presented in papers published between 1956 and 1960, was confirmed by experiment in 1985.
Publication Name: Nature
Subject: Zoology and wildlife conservation
ISSN: 0028-0836
Year: 1992
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