Taking the measure of uncertainty

Article Abstract:

Population forecasters are including the element of uncertainty in their forecasts to produce various alternative demographic probabilities. Demographic forecasts have previously focused on a range of uncertainties but without probabilities, while the new method allows possible future events and outcomes to be taken into consideration. The assumptions of experts are used to calculate the probabilities. Dynamic and static scenarios are established, together with their associated a priori probabilities.

Models, Usage, Uncertainty (Information theory), Population forecasting

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A universal pattern of mortality decline in the G7 countries

Article Abstract:

A new study of mortality in the G7 countries during 1950-94 suggests that official mortality forecasts may be conservative. It is predicted that the ratio of over-65s to working people will range from 6% to 40% higher than official forecasts.

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Greater lifetime expectations

Article Abstract:

Evidence suggests that official forecasts of mortality in the G7 industrialized countries are over-cautious and that life expectancy at birth will increase faster than predicted.

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