Losing faith in crystal balls

Article Abstract:

There are a number of reasons why accurate economic forecasts are difficult to achieve. Factors affecting supply cannot easily be predicted since they are linked to inventions. The private sector seeks to guess what policy will be, while policymakers seek to gues what the private sector's plans are. Expectations can have a major impact and not enough is known about these. There are also areas where ignorance is inevitable such as some spending decisions. Globalization has also increased exposure to foreign markets.

Economic Programs, Administration of Economic Programs, Economic forecasting

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The presuppositions of Gordon Brown

Article Abstract:

Gordon Brown, UK shadow chancellor, appears to believe that more informaed economic policy would help the UK's economic performance improve. This may not be the case. The US Council of Economic Advisors has not always been able to provide effective advice, partly because recessions can develop very rapidly. Politicans need to be confident and clear on economic issues, while academics need to be honest and should possess humility. Macroeconomics may also have become too abstract to be helpful.

Economics, Research and Development in the Social Sciences and Humanities, Macroeconomics

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