Evaluation of probabilistic consultation systems by simulation
Article Abstract:
This paper reports on an evaluation of alternative inference models applied in probabilistic consultation systems by simulation. In the first section some general remarks about consultation systems are made in order to set the specific system discussed in a wider context. Section 2 gives a description of the different inference models tested. The next section specifies simulation experiments which aim at an evaluation of the inference algorithms. Section 4 outlines the actual experiments and in section 5 the results of the experiments are presented. The main conclusions supported by the experiments are: the rule value model gives more successful predictions than simpler inference models, that a model applying the complete Bayes' formula performs better than one which instead makes use of complementary probabilities in the denominators, and that the estimates of prediction probabilities in models ignoring the statistical dependence among symptoms tend to be highly biased and cannot be expected to be useful reliability indicators. (Reprinted by permission of the publisher.)
Publication Name: SIMULATION
Subject: Engineering and manufacturing industries
ISSN: 0037-5497
Year: 1989
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A simulation procedure for sample size determination in electric utility load research
Article Abstract:
Estimating the customer demand for electricity plays a crucial role in the equitable determination of customer electric utility rates. To estimate the customer demand accurately, it is necessary to determine the appropriate sample size. Due to the unique requirements imposed by the Public Utilities Regulatory Policies Act of 1978, existing procedures to determine sample size fail to provide the optimal sample size that will satisfy the requirements at the minimum cost. The objective of this study is to develop and describe a simulation based procedure that is capable of achieving both criteria. The effectiveness of the procedure is tested for selected distributions of electrical demand. The study also identifies other instances where similar sample size determination problems occur and how the newly developed procedure can be used in these situations as well. (Reprinted by permission of the publisher.)
Publication Name: SIMULATION
Subject: Engineering and manufacturing industries
ISSN: 0037-5497
Year: 1989
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