The predictive value of production expectations in manufacturing industry
Article Abstract:
The predictive performance ofproduction expectations in the manufacturing industries of eight Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries is examined. Findings indicate that surveys of production expectations in the manufacturing industry have a predictive value with respect to production and that the forecast horizon is more significant at three or four months as against two or five months in majority of cases. Results also indicate that order inflow, order books, stocks of finished goods and others contain information that can predictproduction.
Publication Name: Journal of Forecasting
Subject: Mathematics
ISSN: 0277-6693
Year: 1993
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On using current information to value hard-rock mineral properties
Article Abstract:
A revised version of the Hotelling valuation principle was proposed to examine the special production properties of hard-rock minerals. The new model still has parsimonious data requirements, although the valuations are lower than those generated by the Hotelling valuation principle. The model also allows the valuer to specify cost and price expectations that do not have to comply with the Hotelling rule. Furthermore, the valuation equations used in the model provide empirical estimates of market value for producing more accurate mineral properties.
Publication Name: Review of Economics and Statistics
Subject: Mathematics
ISSN: 0034-6535
Year: 1998
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On the value of commitment with asymmetric information
Article Abstract:
A model is derived to determine the conditions where renegotiable short-term or spot contracts have the same performance as long-term renegotiation-proof contracts. It is shown that short-term contracts are more efficient than long-term contracts when renegotiation is allowed. However, intertemporal smoothing, and ratchet effects and time consistency in the optimal structure of informational rents may make spot contracting inefficient.
Publication Name: Econometrica
Subject: Mathematics
ISSN: 0012-9682
Year: 1996
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