Efficient forecasts or measurement errors? Some evidence for revisions to United Kingdom GDP growth rates
Article Abstract:
Regular revision of U.K. Gross Domestic Product estimates is necessary due to measurement and forecasting errors, new data, and historical patterns. Rebasing and differences in data vintage have major effects on the use of such series in economic research. Revision patterns and determinants are thus examined to guide data users. The results suggest that revisions consistent with the measurement error hypothesis require assessment and reduction of measurment error mean and variance, while those inconsistent with the efficient forecast hypothesis do not incorporate all available information.
Publication Name: The Manchester School of Economic and Social Studies
Subject: Social sciences
ISSN: 0025-2034
Year: 1992
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Company liquidations, interest rates and debt
Article Abstract:
The effect of interest rate change on the status of corporate debt and eventual liquidity is analyzed. In focus is the case where a firm unexpectedly faces a situation that turns out to be more unfavorable than originally envisioned. The assumption of perfect capital markets is incorporated in a model which suggests that a rise in real interest rates more than nominal rates as well as the nature of debt determines the extent of business failure.
Publication Name: The Manchester School of Economic and Social Studies
Subject: Social sciences
ISSN: 0025-2034
Year: 1995
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Time-varying risk premia and the term structure of forward exchange rates
Article Abstract:
Analysis of experiments conducted to assess the time varying risk premia reveals that forward exchange rates for varied horizons can be utilized to predict the existence of risk premia in the forward foreign exchange market. The apparent bias in forward rates can be attributed to distinct differences between market inefficiency and risk premia.
Publication Name: The Manchester School of Economic and Social Studies
Subject: Social sciences
ISSN: 0025-2034
Year: 1995
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