Reproduction rates in multiregion modeling systems for HIV/AIDS
Article Abstract:
Reproduction rates for a multiregion HIV/AIDS model were derived as well as their associated critical thresholds that estimate the minimum population of susceptibles necessary for an epidemic to begin. The resulting statistics were interpreted for a simplified global setting representing regional variations in the potential onset of HIV/AIDS. The potential applicability of these results to understanding HIV/AIDS prevention was discussed.
Publication Name: Journal of Regional Science
Subject: Social sciences
ISSN: 0022-4146
Year: 1999
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A spatial prior for Bayesian vector autoregressive models
Article Abstract:
A Bayesian prior motivated by cross-sectional spatial autoregressive models for use in time-series vectors autoregressive forecasting involving spatial variables was developed. It was shown that the proposed spatial prior produced forecasts with much lower mean absolute percentage errors. The model also produced forecast errors that exhibited lower dispersion over the 30-month forecasting period in a number of cases.
Publication Name: Journal of Regional Science
Subject: Social sciences
ISSN: 0022-4146
Year: 1999
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