Technological Substitution in the United States Pulp and Paper Industry: The Sulfate Pulping Process
Article Abstract:
An economic analysis of the diffusion of sulfate pulping procedures throughout the United States pulp and paper industry is highlighted. A multivariate estimation model which has greater data capacity than that which employs the growth rate function solely is presented. Empirical findings indicate that the econometric approach furnishes meaningful integration of the technological diffusion procedure and the comparative static demand theory. Sulfate pumping procedures are expected to go on capturing market share at a fast pace, and may very well amount to nine-tenths of the overall United States woodpulp production at the turn of the century. Diffusion stages can be grouped in three stages: the learning stage which has a slow rate of adoption due to unfamiliarity, the second or middle stage, wherein supply problems have been mastered and the rate of adoption is facilitated and the mature stage, where there is a declining rate of adoption signals. Diffusion process modeling began about thirty years ago. Its development is analyzed, and graphs of production are included. Findings show that the dynamic equilibrium model of technological substitution has been disappointing because of an overly short time series.
Publication Name: Technological Forecasting & Social Change
Subject: Social sciences
ISSN: 0040-1625
Year: 1983
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Expected Utilities and Substitution Rates
Article Abstract:
With new forecasting techniques, economics is not viewed as the 'dismal science' but the 'science of hope'. Substitution rates are seen to follow simple s-shaped functions of time. This is called macrodynamics. Mathematical formulations are given to describe the accuracy of macrodynamics when applied to a commodity. How to use macrodynamics for price forecasting is also developed. This approach is seen to offer greater efficiency, objectivity and accuracy than current forecasting techniques used.
Publication Name: Technological Forecasting & Social Change
Subject: Social sciences
ISSN: 0040-1625
Year: 1983
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Technological change and the spatial restructuring of data entry and processing services
Article Abstract:
Rural areas in the US may lose jobs relating to data entry and processing services if policiesrestructuring the spatial distribution of industry employment are not adopted. Technological changes in the industry are enabling information services firms to acquire low-cost yet proficiently skilled labor in Third World countries. Asin Third World countries, the US should enact policies that ensure the retention of firms and jobs in the rural sector despite changes in skill requirements.
Publication Name: Technological Forecasting & Social Change
Subject: Social sciences
ISSN: 0040-1625
Year: 1993
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