Accuracy analysis of consensus forecasts

Article Abstract:

An accuracy analysis of the Journal of Business Forecasting (JBF)'s Consensus Forecasts on such variables as GNP, consumer price index (CPI) and unemployment is made. The accuracy analysis covered 30 quarterly forecast periods in the 1980s. Results show JBF's consensus forecasts generally perform better compared with the record of other forecasters. The mean average percentage error of forecasting GNP is 1. 2% for one quarter ahead forecasts and 1.5% for four quarters ahead forecasts. A more accurate outcome is noted for CPI, but less accurate for unemployment.

Periodicals, Unemployment, Gross national product, Consumer price indexes

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The next generation: hopefully better forecasters

Article Abstract:

Forecasting should rely on theory and careful extrapolation of data to be credible. It should also be conducted by the right professionals, especially by economists who study human behavior. It can be more effective through interdisciplinary work, involving biological sciences and psychology. However, a world forecast for the year 2020 supports the view that there are no valid models that can forecast with credibility and accuracy where the world is headed in the coming three decades.

Practice, Economists

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Daily demand forecasting at Columbia Gas

Article Abstract:

A description of the forecasting process at Columbia Gas of Ohio is presented, with focus on the methods used for daily forecasts and the importance to the business of having accurate forecasts.

Forecasting, Weather, Business forecasting, Columbia Gas Distribution Cos.

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