An application of copulas to accident precursor analysis

Article Abstract:

A study was conducted to analyze the use of copulas, a method of representing joint distribution functions with particular marginals, to develop needed prior distributions to be utilized in a Bayesian analysis of hypothetical precursor data. The ability of copulas to promote the construction of prior distributions with marginals, moments and rank correlation coefficients was also examined. Results indicated the effectiveness of using copulas to estimate accident frequencies using precursor information. Findings also showed that copulas support a feasible and rigorous method of relaxing the independence assumption that can result into misleading estimates of accident frequencies.

Risk assessment, Accidents

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Final-offer arbitration

Article Abstract:

In an examination of final-offer arbitration, circumstances are given creating an equilibrium in a game of arbitration, with no arbitrator restriction to an individual probability function, and in which each of the disputing sides is risk-neutral or risk-averse. The focus of the study is on each of the disputants' final offer choices, assuming that arbitration will settle the dispute. It can be shown that if one of the disputant sides elevates risk aversion, both sides take positions removed from the higher risk averse side. The arbitrator's bias impact on the stances taken by disputants is also demonstrated.

Models, Collective bargaining, Commercial arbitration, Commercial arbitration agreements

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Economic contests with incomplete information and optimal contest design

Article Abstract:

Two-person contests with differing ability and action levels are studied in a state of equilibrium. Both contestants have private information about their abilities and these abilities may be correlated. This differs from previous work in that it permits imperfect correlation and focuses attention on a discrete output space. Equilibrium here may involve lower ability contestants choosing higher effort and winning the contest. It may be optimal for the contest designer to induce equilibria.

Contests

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