Belief assessment: an underdeveloped phase of probability elicitation

Article Abstract:

The methodologies applied by decision analysts to elicit probabilities from experts are evaluated through a cognitive analysis of subjective probability. Probability assessment is modelled as a process requiring both reasoning and judgment. Two general stages within this process used by decision analysts are identified. One of these is belief assessment, which involves the structuring and conditioning steps in which target propositions are clarified and pertinent information is drawn from the domain expert. The other stage is response assessment, which involves encoding and verifying steps in which the target propositions have numerical or verbal qualifiers. Opportunities for improving the usefulness of the assessment practice are discussed.

Analysis, Reasoning, Probabilities, Probability theory, Judgment, Judgment (Psychology), Belief and doubt

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Defining managerial problems: a framework for prescriptive theorizing

Article Abstract:

Problem definition is conceptualized in order to optimize the value of prescriptive and descriptive research. Problem definition is integrated into the overall problem solving process, and the various common problem definitions are delineated. A prescriptive framework for solving the central dilemma of problem definition is proposed.

Research, Management science, Problem solving

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