The politics of forecasting: managing the truth

Article Abstract:

Executives think a lot about the future; it drives much of what modern management is all about. The techniques of forecasting and modeling, by their very nature, are designed to reduce the inherent uncertainty of predicting the future. Unfortunately, motives other than "predicting" often politicize the forecasting and modeling process to the detriment of managerial decision quality and investor confidence. Many firms routinely manipulate elements of the forecasting process. Requests by senior management of purposely alter forecasts, backcast from previously established cost and revenue positions, or mis-specify models occur all too frequently. Better training, formalized forecasting procedures, codes of conduct, clearly defined consultants' roles, and punitive actions can improve the quality of forecasting. (Reprinted by permission of the publisher.)

Political aspects, Models and modelmaking, Models (Toys), Business forecasting

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High-technology location and development: the case of Orange County

Article Abstract:

Location preferences of high-technology companies are different from traditional manufacturing firms, in that closeness to markets and suppliers and industry infrastructures do not affect the location decision. High tech firms locate according to availability of technical personnel, desirability of geographic areas, and personal preferences of company owners. In Orange County, California, high tech employment levels have grown 30 percent per year; in San Diego, the high tech employment level increase 250 percent over a ten-year period. When firms locate according to the life style desirability of neighborhoods, housing costs can become a problem for recruiters; solutions to these housing cost problems are discussed.

California, Location, Industrial locations, Industrial location

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Transferring core manufacturing technologies in high-technology firms

Article Abstract:

This article examines the successes and failures of thirty-two different high technology intrafirm core manufacturing technology transfers where a technology was either replicated at or completely relocated to another facility. In addition, the study investigates the impact various factors have upon the economies of such transfers. These factors include: distance between facilities, complexity of the technology, communication and training, organizational experience with prior transfers, financial commitment to the transferred technology, and other resource costs. (Reprinted by permission of the publisher.)

Management, Technology transfer

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