Etla laati perusennusteensa lis ksi kriisivaihtoehdon

Article Abstract:

The Research Institute of Finnish Economy has included in their economic forecast in addition to the basic forecast also a so called crisis option. The basic forecast does not consider overheating nor recession of Finnish economy likely. The economic growth for 1998 is according to the basic forecast 5% and according to the crisis option 4%. For 1999 the corresponding figures are 3.5% and 2%. The Research Institute estimates investments to increase by 6% or according to the crisis option by 5%. For 1999 the figures are 7% and 4%. Private consumption should grow by 4% or by 3.5% in 1998 and by 3.5% or 2.5% in 1999. The unemployment rate is forecast to be 11% or 11.5% in 1998 and 10% or 11.5% in 1999. The crisis option will be realized if the growth of the world economy slows down for example due to worsened Asian crisis, crisis in the Latin America, possible chaos in Russia or worldwide decrease in stock markets. In Finland, recession of the world economy would mean for example slower growth in exports, fewer investments, stop in the diminishing of unemployment and end of stabilizing the public economy. According to the MD Pentti Vartia of the Research Institute of Finnish Economy, the Institute will hold on to the basic forecast. However, personally he believes "pessimism to slowly set in". The Research Institute notes that the risks in international economy have increased. In Finland, the current account surplus functions as a buffer for decline in export demand. Domestic demand is estimated to sustain Finland's economic growth, though it is difficult to forecast the behaviour of consumers.

Comment:

Finland: Economic growth for 1998 is according to the basic forecast 5% & according to the crisis option 4%

National Income & Expenditure

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Etla: Kansantuote 4 prosentin kasvussa

Article Abstract:

The review of business conditions by Research Institute of Finnish Economy shows that the gross national product (GNP) of Finland will grow in 1998-2002 by an average of 3.5%. The average growth in gross production is one percentage unit higher than the EU average. In 1998, the Finnish GNP will grow by 4%. According to the forecast by the Research Institute, unemployment in Finland will decrease to 7% within five years. In 1999, unemployment rate is expected to be 11%. Inflation is expected to remain in approx. 2%. In 1999, inflation will be 1.7%. Private consumption will increase by as much as gross production i.e. 3.5%. According to the forecast, Finland's public economy will balance in three years. The surplus of Finland's balance of current account will increase in 1999 by Fmk 4bn.

Comment:

Finland: Review of conditions by Research Institute of Finnish Economy shows that GNP will grow in 1998-2002 by ave of 3.5%

Gross National Product

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Valio ratkaisee hein kuussa kantansa Arla-yhteisty h n

Article Abstract:

Consultants have studied the cooperation possibilities of Finnish Valio and Swedish Arla . Valio will decide in July 1998 whether the joining of operations is worth further research. The cooperation would be to increase the competitiveness of the companies. One potential model for increasing cooperation is to move cheese, fat and powder operations to a separate company. They account for approx. Fmk 8bn (US$ 1.5bn) of Valio turnover. Valio emphasizes that the study on increasing cooperation with Arla is preliminary. Decisions can be expected only after more specific research in autumn.

Comment:

Valio will decide in 7/98 whether the joining of operations w/ company is worth further research

Dairy Products, Dairy Product Manufacturing, Strategic alliances, Arla Foods Ingredients (Stockholm, Sweden), Valio Finnish Co-Operative Dairies Association

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