Goldilocks gets confused

Article Abstract:

The US trade deficit increased in May 1998 due to a drop in exports to Asia, while industrial production dropped in Jun 1998, pushed down by a strike at General Motors. Economists revised forecasts of growth downwards, yet the Federal Reserve chairman, Alan Greenspan, is concerned about inflationary pressure from a tight labor market. Domestic demand is strong and consumer confidence is high, so economic data are difficult to interpret.The economy may be calmer in 2nd half 1998, but there is still a danger of overheating.

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No longer boom, but not yet doom

Article Abstract:

Most economists do not forecast a recession in the US for 1999, but it has become more likely that a recession could occur. Unemployment and inflation are low and there is a budget surplus. Trade is likely to be affected by world economic problems, and capital spending could also fall, as capacity utilization drops. Consumer confidence is down, but consumers do not appear to be unduly alarmed. Lower interest rates could help the economy if it moves into recession.

Balance of trade, Recessions

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Pausing or plummeting?

Article Abstract:

US economic indicators are examined for signs slower growth and a possible downturn.

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