Return of the Dread-I?

Article Abstract:

US consumer prices rose by 0.7% in April 1999, with core inflation up by 0.4%, and there is disagreement among economists as to whether this means that US inflationary pressures are building up. Pessimists argue that inflation has only been low because of special circumstances such as the strength of the US dollar, low petroleum prices, and weakness in economies abroad, and this is ending. Optimists point to productivity growth linked to new technology and high investment levels, and lower expectations of inflation which have tended to keep wage rises low. The US is seeing unsustainable growth in demand, but this could ease off. The Federal Reserve appears to be taking an opimtistic position.

Cover Story, Economic policy, United States. Federal Reserve Board, United States economic conditions

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A new economy for the New World?

Article Abstract:

Wage inflation was seen as linked to high unemployment in Britain, according to Bill Phillips, an economist who developed a model to show how this occurred. Milton Friedman and Edmund Phelps argued that inflation expectations changed this relationship, and they also stressed the idea of a natural level of unemployment. It is unclear whether very low inflation helps to promote economic growth, and there are risks from deflation which could be greater than those of inflation. There are signs of wage inflation in the US, although they are less than expected using ideas of a natural level of unemployment at some 5.5% of the work force.

Unemployment

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Caught in the jaws

Article Abstract:

The risk of global recession is examined in detail. Signs of recession are assessed, as are risks posed by possible stagflation. Risks from global inflation are also examined and seen as less serious than those posed by possible recession.

Editorial, Economic indicators, Recessions

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