Risk analysis of catastrophes using experts' judgements: an empirical study on risk analysis of major civil aircraft accidents in Europe

Article Abstract:

The use of expert judgments in making a risk assessment of civil aircraft accidents in Europe was examined. Specifically, the judgments of 21 experts are calibrated and aggregated using several theoretical models based on Bayesian statistics to determine their future risk forecasts. In addition, two techniques to approximate the analysis error variances of the experts are also introduced. The results show that the models 'work satisfactorily.'

Operations research, Management science, Case studies, Forecasts and trends, Accidents

---

The influence of perceived stock value price histories in the mean-variance-instability model

Article Abstract:

Research is presented concerning the interpretation of real time utility functions in the assessment of risk by investors through the utilization of optimization techniques influenced by penalty weighted instability matrices.

Operations Research, Investments, Portfolio management, Securities, Utility theory, Utility functions

---

A time-integrated Richardson model

Article Abstract:

Research is presented describing the development of a Richardson equation based risk assessment model using time-integration to produce defence strategies.

Forecasting, Arms race

Similar abstracts:

• Abstracts: Optimal transfer pricing schemes for work averse division managers with private information. Entry strategies for multinational enterprises and host countries
• Abstracts: Some experiments with simulated annealing techniques for packing problems. Improved methods of assembly sequence determination for automatic assembly systems
• Abstracts: Shares of Waste Management fall 37% on forecast. Oakley shares fall to 52-week low on weak forecast. Phelps Dodge says loss will be wider than forecast
• Abstracts: Thirst for funds drives change in South Korea. Orderly succession expected at Tsai Group: billionaire's division of Lin-Yuan companies may prevent family feud
• Abstracts: IT in the land of salsa, rum and fidel. Kidnapped. The Big Print Giveth, the small print taketh away

This website is not affiliated with document authors or copyright owners. This page is provided for informational purposes only. Unintentional errors are possible.