Figures that leave us in the dark

Article Abstract:

There are problems is assessing whether UK economic growth is stronger than initial estimates, and if this is so, whether interest rates should be raised. The economy could have have grown by more than official estimates of 2.4% for 1996, according to Lehman Brothers' Michael Dicks. This may mean that monetary policy is too loose. Others argue that offical data have becomemore reliable, and that inflation may be overestimated. This may mean that monetary policy is not too loose. We are never likely to have an accurate picture of the economy.

Gross Domestic Product, Analysis, Statistics, Economic surveys

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Soft landing

Article Abstract:

NatWest Markets sees a danger of recession in the United Kingdom, with a drop in economic growth after 1997, when it is estimated at 3.3%. A drop in export growth is likely to affect the economy due to the high value of pound sterling. Consumer spending will be affected by higher taxes and interest rates and the end of windfalls. Unemployment could start to rise in 1998. The problem could be exacerbated if exporters decide to cease to operate due to pressure on profit margins, and if consumer spending falls more sharply than expected.

Economic forecasting, Recessions

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