Chi-squared tests of interval and density forecasts, and the Bank of England's fan charts

Article Abstract:

The recently proposed likelihood ratio tests of goodness-of-fit and independence of interval forecasts are studied. The study recasts interval forecasts in the framework of Pearson chi-squared statistics, and considers their extension to density forecasts.

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Predicting the World Cup 2002 in soccer: performance and confidence of experts and non-experts

Article Abstract:

A study examining the forecasting abilities of experts and non-experts with different level of knowledge of soccer in case of World Cup 2002 is presented. The effects of overconfidence and judgemental views on these sports forecasts are also examined.

United States, Sweden, Methods, Beliefs, opinions and attitudes, Soccer fans, World Cup (Soccer), Football executives

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Exploring information in vintages of time-series data

Article Abstract:

The benefits of modeling and forecasting the unification of the data generation process and data measurement process is discussed. The combination of both the processes helps in giving a consistent approach in vintages on several variables.

Inflation (Finance), Inflation (Economics)

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