Post-quake lessons for power utilities

Article Abstract:

Southern California Edison Co is learning how to protect its power system better with lessons learned from recent earthquakes. Earthquakes in 1971, 1986, and 1987 in the Southern California Edison service area caused damage to the system infrastructure and interrupted service to wide areas. After the repairs were made, the utility looked at making possible design changes in preparation for future quakes, but always keeping an eye on the cost-benefit equation. The precautions are practical, because seismologists predict a 50 percent chance of a major earthquake in the Los Angeles area within the next 30 years. Most of the damage during the three earthquakes occurred to the 'glass' power plant parts: insulators, conductor supports, and bushings on lightning arresters, transformers, and circuit breakers. A database was created following inspections and reports of damage, so that future damage could be forecast and prevented.

Planning, Cost benefit analysis, Earthquakes, Southern California Edison Co., Study, Preventive Maintenance

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A new model of incremental decision making for resource acquisition by electric utilities

Article Abstract:

Electric utilities have developed and applied several new ways to address the uncertainties they face in resource planning. In these methods, however, all the resource-acquisition decisions (e.g., construction of power plants and operation of energy-efficient programs) are made at the beginning of the simulation. This paper describes a new model that explicitly deals with the frequent, incremental nature of utility decision making. This model requires users to interact with model results and forecasts after every year or two of simulation. At that time, the user can initiate new resource acquisitions or modify past decisions (e.g., slow down construction of a power plant or change the marketing budget for an energy-efficiency program) (Reprinted by permission of the publisher)

Electric services, Technical, Modeling, Data modeling software, Resource Management, Acquisition, Decision Making

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The DOX decision tree

Article Abstract:

A decision tree was developed for an experiment involving 2 super (8-4) with seven response variables. The diagram uses a stem-and-leaf structure, with the factors designated in the stem and indicators for each factor, both low level and high level, designated on either side of the stem. The resulting chart clearly visualizes the experiment and will help the researcher select the best factor settings to use when multiple response variables are involved.

Models, Usage, Statistics (Mathematics), Mathematical statistics, Decision tree, Decision trees

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