Selection bias and land development in the monocentric city model

Article Abstract:

Muth and Mills' monocentric city model of land development is characterized by the lack of error terms in the land value functions, the assumption of the city as being located on a featureless plain, and the assumption of land development as occuring around the edge of the city. An attempt was made to expand this model by introducing error terms in land value functions. It was suggested that selection bias could distort land value equations. An analysis of the extended model proved it to be effective in predicting land use for small pieces of land. In addition to this, the results of the study gave support to the extended Muth-Mills model by showing that land value functions, corrected for selection bias, could predict the uniformly higher values of urban land when compared to the agricultural values for urban land and vice versa.

City planning, Urban planning

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Urban land value functions with endogenous zoning

Article Abstract:

The estimated land value functions in which zoning was endogenous indicate that the northern Chicago suburbs decentralized over the period of 1961-1981. The value of residential land became less a function of its distance from Chicago and rail commuter lines, but more a function of its distance from Chicago's O'Hare International Airport because of its importance as a regional employer. The value of nonresidential land was more a function of its distance from the nearest village hall and the airport than it was of its distance from Chicago. Nonresidential land value became more a function of the distance to O'Hare as time passed.

Taxation, Economic aspects, Valuation, Chicago, Illinois, Real property, Real estate appraisal, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport

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A Markov Chain model of zoning change

Article Abstract:

An estimation of a Markov Chain model of land-use zoning is presented. Some 260 10-acre tracts of land in Chicago, IL, between 1961 and 1981 are analyzed. The land-use classifications are residential, non-residential, and combination. The Markov Chain model provides good predictions of the equilibrium pattern of land-use zoning. Land that is at the edge of suburban regions near the time of incorporation is more likely to be converted from residential to non-residential use. Sustained mixed land use does not seem to be possible.

Land use, Markov processes

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