Using monthly data to predict quarterly output

Article Abstract:

The monthly indicators model developed at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is modified in response to the new approach for forecasting current quarter GDP adopted by the Commerce Dept. The revised model demonstrates that a specification based on two indicator variables can forecast GDP as well as specifications with three or four variables. Findings also show that monthly consumption data can generate significant information about current GDP.

Economic development

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Predicitng contemporaneous output

Article Abstract:

Studies conducted on forecasting of the gross domestic product (GDP) in a current quarter has shown that this figure can be obtained with the use of the three variables utilized in forecasting the real gross national product. The variables needed are nonagricultural employment, industrial production and retail sales. Calculation amd forecasting of GDP is an important tool in the decision making processes of monetary policy makers.

Gross domestic product

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Explaining unemployment: sectoral vs. aggregate shocks

Article Abstract:

A study assessed the implication of sectoral and aggregate shocks on the unemployment rate. An examination of time-series economic data showed sectoral shifts coincided with the significant proportion of variations in the unemployment rate. An attendant finding of the modeling showed that recessions do not follow the old model of business cycles, especially since recessions were found to be affected by sectoral shifts.

Administration of General Economic Programs, Economic Planning & Research, Research, Economic research, Economic conditions, Unemployment, Recessions, Business cycles

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