Adjusting judgemental extrapolations using Theil's method and discounted weighted regression

Article Abstract:

The use of Theil's original method and a discounted weighted regression (DWR) form of the method in adjusting judgmental extrapolations is examined. Extrapolations are made for stationary and non-stationary and low- and high-noise series in 100 subjects. Results indicate that Theil's method is suitable for a series with a high noise level, while DWR is most effective when the time-series signal becomes more discernible over time or when the signal can be changed.

Time-series analysis, Time series analysis

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Testing for statistical and market efficiency when forecast errors are non-normal: the NFL betting market revisited

Article Abstract:

Research is presented concerning the efficiency of the betting market which is based on the National Football League. The use of negative binomial distribution to investigate non-normal forecast errors is discussed.

Usage, National Football League, Binomial distribution, Gambling systems

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Effect of regressor forecast error on the variance of regression forecasts

Article Abstract:

Research is presented concerning the evaluation of large-sample approximations for a single-equation regression model for which the error variance has been forecast. A case study is discussed.

Prediction (Logic)

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