Assessing the historical accuracy of regional economic forecasts

Article Abstract:

A study represents an initial attempt to address the systematic evaluation of regional economic forecasts. The analysis focuses on 'ex ante' regional structural equation model forecasts for 19 metropolitan areas. Results show that dependency on macroeconomic forecasting model inputs has no significant effect in reducing accuracy compared with univariate extrapolative methodologies. On average, stochastic time series models do not yield more accurate regional economic predictions compared with structural models.

Research, Models, Regional economics, Forecasting, Time-series analysis, Time series analysis

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Regional econometric income forecast accuracy

Article Abstract:

Economic forecasts of a region are used in framing of policies and budgeting for a state and at local levels. The econometric prediction accuracy of such forecast for the US state of New Mexico and its three key areas Albuquerque, Las Cruces and Santa Fe are examined by using the previous data and the findings.

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A forecasting procedure for nonlinear autoregressive time series models

Article Abstract:

The new procedure for forecasting nonlinear autoregressive time series models is proposed and its effectiveness when compared with existing models is explained.

Autoregression (Statistics)

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