Detection of regime switches between stationary and nonstationary processes and economic forecasting

Article Abstract:

A nation's economy switches from one regime to another; this feature is known as the asymmetry of business cycles. The Markov switching model is applied to forecast economic time series. These regime switches may arise between stationary and nonstationary processes. Stochastic unit root models are potentially useful in multi-step-ahead forecasting.

Japan, Economic forecasting

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Statistical surveillance of cyclical processes with application to turns in business cycles

Article Abstract:

Online statistical monitoring of cyclical processes is examined. A significant use of this analysis is the forecast of the next turn in business cycles. Likelihood ratio, Markov model, etc. are discussed in detail.

On-Line Information Services, Videotex & Teletext, Telegraph & other communications, Online services, Internet services, Cable television/data services

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Using a heterogeneous multinational probit model with a neutral net extension to model brand choice

Article Abstract:

An external multinational probit model for forecasting price expectations in domestic markets is developed by using hierarchical Bayesian modeling.

Pricing Policy, Methods, Bayesian statistical decision theory, Bayesian analysis, Pricing, Product price

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