Do government agencies use public data?: the case of GNP

Article Abstract:

The use of public data by government agencies is questioned. The US Council of Economic Advisers launched an initiative in 1991 to improve the quality of economic statistics, partially to minimize gross national product (GNP) estimate revisions. This may be accomplished in cost-effective and direct manner if the Dept. of Commerce uses publicly available data from other government agencies. Information is found to be inefficiently used where the absolute value of changes in the preliminary GNP estimate is sizable.

Analysis, Economic research, Information management, Gross national product, Administrative agencies, Government agencies

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Updating the forecast function of ARIMA models and the link with DLMs

Article Abstract:

Several techniques for updating forecasts of ARIMA statistical models exist and include individually updating each forecast and updating the eventual forecast function. A study demonstrates that the entire forecast function of ARIMA models may be updated including those time frames not covered by the eventual forecast function. This may be done using techniques developed for another class of time series models called dynamic linear models.

Econometrics & Model Building, Mathematical models, Statistics (Mathematics), Business models, Mathematical statistics

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Forecasting quarterly data using monthly information

Article Abstract:

An approach for improving quarterly forecasts by using within-quarter variations of monthly data is described. A comparison of the one-step-ahead and multi-step-ahead forecasts for real GNP generated is made, using the model, which is extremely simple but produces lower root mean squared errors. The outperformance of parsimonious models of larger-scale models is also illustrated.

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