Structural adjustment in the UK and Europe under the ERM

Article Abstract:

A study was conducted to analyze world economic models. The study evaluated the Oxford Economic Forecasting (OEF) model. The OEF model was then used as a basis for examining the process of integration among European countries since the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) was established. The study also focused on questions of difference between the UK and the rest of Europe which may effect adjustment to ERM.

Analysis

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On trend extraction models: comments on a paper by Garcia-Ferrer and del Hoyo

Article Abstract:

A comment on a study of forecasting ability of the ARIMA model is presented. The central point made by the study is said to be misleading since the cross-corellations between estimated trend and irregular disturbances are predicted by theory and should be expected. Thus the conclusions on the ARIMA model should be studied more extensively since the model may not give a good fit as reported.

Research, Prediction theory

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Comparative simulation analysis of the European multi-country models

Article Abstract:

A study was conducted to evaluate various European macroeconomic models. Although the models had similar specifications across different countries, they provided different simulation responses. Comparative analysis indicates that the models varied in strategies concerning management of inflation on consumption, import behavior activity and the effect of excess demand on wages.

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