What have macroeconomists learned about business cycles from the study of seasonal cycles?

Article Abstract:

Seasonal business fluctuations are important in studying rises and falls in business cycles. Using a model based on studies made by Chatterjee and Ravikumar (1992) and Braun and Evans (1994), it can be seen that seasonal fluctuations illustrate the concept of synergistic equilibrium and preference shift. Moreover, seasonal dummy variables estimations disprove production smoothing and provide evidence for unmeasured variation in capital and labor use.

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On seasonal cycles, unit roots, and mean shifts

Article Abstract:

The role of neglected mean shifts was analyzed in terms of locating seasonal unit roots. Utilization of an econometric method revealed that evidence for seasonal unit roots is more likely to diminish for a group of real gross domestic product series. Meanwhile, documented outcomes on the presence of seasonal cycle tend to be powerful when deterministic mean shifts are included in the deterministic seasonality model.

Economics, Research and Development in the Social Sciences and Humanities, Models, Time-series analysis, Time series analysis

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Has the U.S. economy become more stable? A Bayesian approach on a Markov-switching model of the business cycle

Article Abstract:

The Bayesian approach is employed to discover if the postwar United States experienced a structural break and, if so, when did it occur and what is its nature.

United States, Science & research, Econometrics & Model Building, Statistical Data Included, Usage, Econometrics, Bayesian statistical decision theory, Bayesian analysis, United States economic conditions, Markov processes, Business models

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