Economic sanctions and econometric policy evaluation; a cautionary note

Article Abstract:

Econometric predictions of the success or failure of sanctions against a nation need to be modified with political considerations. The models proposed by Gary Hufbauer and Kimberly Ann Elliott, and by San Ling Lam, were mistakenly used by Hufbauer and Elliott in 1990 to suggest sanctions would drive Iraq out of Kuwait. These models can be made more accurate by the inclusion of factors such as the regime's internal vulnerability and whether the goals of the sanctions are of ultimate importance to the boycotted nation. A model incorporating these factors does not predict success of sanctions in the Iraqi question.

International aspects, Econometrics, Economic sanctions, Sanctions (International law)

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Countervailing the effects of subsidies: an economic analysis

Article Abstract:

The countervailing duties charged by the US against foreign producers who receive domestic or export subsidies are not set properly. Generally, the duty is based on the ad valorem rate of subsidization. However, this method more than offsets the subsidization. Also, domestic subsidies are treated the same as export subsidies, although domestic subsidies do not have as much effect on export markets as direct export subsidies. These methodological shortcomings of the Commerce Department's duty-setting process also skew the International Trade Commission's injury determinations.

Economic aspects

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Domestic injury, procedural parallelism and the future of countervail: a comment on Collins-Williams and Salembier's International Disciplines on Subsidies

Article Abstract:

The new World Trade Organization (WTO) Subsidies Agreement provides plenty of room for multilateral dispute settlement, contrary to general perceptions. Consideration of both the Article 5(a) domestic injury provision and the Article 5(c) serious prejudice provisions provides ample scope for the multilateral approach, regardless of the market affected by the alleged subsidy. Although domestic countervail procedures will continue to be patronized by complainants, such a trend should not be attributed to inadequate grounds for handing such actions directly to the WTO.

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