Subjective probability of disjunctive hypotheses: local-weight models for decomposition of evidential support

Article Abstract:

A study was conducted to analyze the nonextensionality of subjective probability by examining the local weights that determine the specific contribution of each component hypothesis included in the residual. A process for estimating local weights was discussed. A set of plausible properties imposing systematic ordinal associations among local weights was then analyzed. Results indicated the sensitivity of local weights to the individual component and the residual hypothesis.

Cognitive psychology

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Strength of evidence, judged probability, and choice under uncertainty

Article Abstract:

A study was conducted to analyze the association between assessed strength of evidence, judgments of probability, and decisions under uncertainty. The study was based on a theoretical framework provided by support theory. Support was scaled from raw strength ratings. In addition, a model of decision under uncertainty supporting the replacement of sub-additive judge probabilities with additive subjective probabilities was examined.

Probabilities, Probability theory, Judgment (Logic)

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An evidential support accumulation model of subjective probability

Article Abstract:

An Evidential Support Accumulation Model (ESAM) of cue-based probability judgment is developed and examined with the help of the support theory. This model along with other descriptive models, which obtain accurate cue-based judgments, can greatly help people in understanding or improving judgments, and also support decision-making.

United States, Evaluation, Decision theory

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