How an Asian recovery could shape up

Article Abstract:

There will be many different factors determining the nature of economic recovery in Asia. However, it is worth considering whether there are any general patterns in previous economic crises which could shed light on what may happen in Asia. Research into the impact of 11 previous banking crises indicates that the pattern of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in relation to trend seems to be relatively consistent. Real GDP seems to rise much more quickly than trend in the run-up to a crisis, but growth usually falls below trend around 12 to 24 months before the crisis begins.

Asia

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Don't bank on China for the next miracle

Article Abstract:

It seems unlikely that the Japanese economy will undergo a dramatic revival, and this is prompting western leaders to consider the possibility that China will become the main focus of economic power in Asia in the 21st century. It is true that China is an enormous potential market with a very strong economic growth rate. However, there is still a feudal economy in large areas of China, and its physical infrastructure remains largely undeveloped. Western companies considering doing business in China should be extremely cautious.

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Why the world should worry about China

Article Abstract:

China's economy remains largely based on internal business, with China only representing 4% of world trade. However, China is significant to the world economy in a number of ways. It represents 20% of world grain consumption, 10% of metal use and 5% of energy use, and world commodity prices and bond markets would therefore be very negatively affected if there were a recession in China. Furthermore, China is also significant because the behaviour of its economy is vital to Hong Kong.

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