A second lease on life for technological forecasting
Article Abstract:
Technological forecasting is believed to have already completed a life cycle and is currently on its low-activity period. Utilizing the four seasons as a metaphor, technological forecasting is said to be in its winter season, having already planted the 'seeds' for its future resurgence. Among the most promising techniques for technological forecasting are the so-called biology-related studies. These include the Fisher-Pry model of 1971 and the 1997 'Genetic Re-Engineering of Corporations.'
Publication Name: Technological Forecasting & Social Change
Subject: Social sciences
ISSN: 0040-1625
Year: 1999
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Technological substitutions in the computer industry
Article Abstract:
The Fisher and Pry logistic substitution model refined by Marchetti and Nakicenovic is effective in predicting competitive substitution between computer products and technologies. The model shows that a new technology better than previous ones does not necessarily invite faster substitution, but rather it is its compatibility with existing software that hastens substitution. High compatibility was found to promote a substitution rate of as high as 80% in a year.
Publication Name: Technological Forecasting & Social Change
Subject: Social sciences
ISSN: 0040-1625
Year: 1993
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Technological forecasting at the stock market
Article Abstract:
Corporate stocks can be viewed as competing species seeking resources from investors. This approach can yield insights and forecasts, including insights about the relationship between stocks and bonds.
Publication Name: Technological Forecasting & Social Change
Subject: Social sciences
ISSN: 0040-1625
Year: 1999
User Contributions:
Comment about this article or add new information about this topic:
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