Decomposition of Ex Ante State Model Forecasting Errors

Article Abstract:

Regional econometric modeling is loaded with chains of forecasts. Many new state and SMSA models have been developed, but there has not been enough attention paid to systematic analysis of errors. A theoretical error decomposition for regional econometric models is promulgated. The empirical magnitude of various kinds of errors in a typical state regional econometric model is also analyzed. Four types of error are specified. Forecasting errors on endogenous model variables can be decomposed with a sequence of four mean absolute percent errors (MAPE). Regression estimates for stochastically treated variables are explained for both in-sample and out-of-sample cases. A table of total model structure for four small econometric model structures for Arizona is featured. Large scale models are also analyzed. Each has over fifty industrial employment categories; other major variables are detailed.

Arizona, Metropolitan areas

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A Note on Regional Investment Functions

Article Abstract:

The representative industry investment functions used in regional econometric models are examined. Nationally based investment equations may not be applicable to regional models. An alternative method of forecasting regional investment is proposed. Inadequate regional data has long been problematic. The styling of regional investment functions as a function of lagged outputs is considered. Investment functions vary as to the determinants of desired stock, time lag specification and the handling of replacement investments. Lumpiness and new firm difficulties can be exacerbated at the regional level. Regionally, output stream is a bad sign of future investments. An alternative approach, based on a firm's decision-making process, is highlighted. Capacity output is defined. Regional profits may shift, as will output and investment.

Usage, Industrial capacity

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Developing countries and environmental protection: the effects of ex ante versus ex post contracting

Article Abstract:

The International Environmental Agreements (IEA) to be developed by international organizations to solve the environmental problems in developing countries are not inherently doomed because of a fundamental monitoring and enforcement problem resulting from national sovereignty. Since the supranational governmental authority is unable to contract directly with polluting firms in developing countries, it must negotiate with such firms through their governments.

Administration of Air and Water Resource and Solid Waste Management Programs, Environmental Programs, Pollution Control & Abatement, International aspects, Developing countries, Pollution, Environmental policy, Control, Pollution control, Environmental protection

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