Effect of self-relevance of an event on hindsight bias: the foreseeability of a layoff

Article Abstract:

Past research has led to conflicting predictions about how hindsight bias is influenced by the self-relevance of an event. Some research suggests that self-relevance will increase hindsight (a) as individuals are motivated to restore a sense of predictability and (b) as self-relevant outcomes elicit sense making, which in turn leads to hindsight. Other research suggests that self-relevance will reduce hindsight, at least in the case of negative outcomes, (a) as individuals seek to avoid blame and (b) as the memories of the reaction to the self-relevant outcomes serve as a memory cue that inhibits hindsight bias. These contrasting predictions were tested by examining retrospections about the foreseeability of a job layoff. Responses were obtained from laid-off workers, from survivors of the layoffs, and from community members. Community members reported more foreseeability than survivors, who in turn reported more foreseeability than laid-off workers. The results held across several analyses, including a regression-discontinuity analysis of survivors and laid-off respondents. The self-relevance of an event such as a layoff seems to reduce hindsight. (Reprinted by permission of the publisher.)

Analysis, Forecasts and trends, Layoffs, Psychological research, Self-interest, Self interest

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The relationship between membership decline and union commitment: a field study of local unions in crisis

Article Abstract:

In this field study, I examined relationships between membership decline in 20 locals affiliated with a large industrial union and commitment as measured by a short-term version of the Union Commitment Scale. Commitment level was positively related to percentage of decline, with members in locals with more severe membership losses reporting higher commitment than members in locals with less severe or no losses. Also examined was the influence of decline on satisfaction with company and with union, as well as attitudes toward past and future strike activity. Satisfaction results were partially consistent with union-management climate influences on dual commitment. Results on strike attitudes were generally consistent with results on decline and commitment. Findings are interpreted as illustrating predictable adjustments made by union members in support of local activity under crisis conditions. The need for further field studies to explore the impact of prolonged crisis on union-management relations is stressed. (Reprinted by permission of the publisher.)

Membership, Commitment (Psychology)

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Gender composition and gender representation in local unions: relationships between women's participation in local office and women's participation in local activities

Article Abstract:

This study examined the influence of gender features of local union office (N=37) on women's and men's ratings to participate in local activities (N=414). Gender proportion in local office was indexed by gender composition (the relative proportion of women and men in local office) and by gender representation (the ratio of the proportion of women in local office to the proportion of local women). Women's ratings of their competence and opportunity to participate in local activities were higher in locals with a higher composition of women in office. Similarly, women's ratings of their opportunity and desire to participate were positively related to greater representation of women in office. In contrast, men's ratings were only slightly influenced by these local features but in some cases were negatively affected. The findings are discussed in terms of improving the proportion of women and men in office to enhance women's participation in local activities. (Reprinted by permission of the publisher.)

Labor organizations, Labor Unions, Labor Unions and Similar Labor Organizations, Women

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