Efficient forecasts or measurement errors? Some evidence for revisions to United Kingdom GDP growth rates

Article Abstract:

Regular revision of U.K. Gross Domestic Product estimates is necessary due to measurement and forecasting errors, new data, and historical patterns. Rebasing and differences in data vintage have major effects on the use of such series in economic research. Revision patterns and determinants are thus examined to guide data users. The results suggest that revisions consistent with the measurement error hypothesis require assessment and reduction of measurment error mean and variance, while those inconsistent with the efficient forecast hypothesis do not incorporate all available information.

Methods, Evaluation, Measurement, Accounting and auditing, Gross domestic product, Economic indicators, Income forecasting, National income

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Company liquidations, interest rates and debt

Article Abstract:

The effect of interest rate change on the status of corporate debt and eventual liquidity is analyzed. In focus is the case where a firm unexpectedly faces a situation that turns out to be more unfavorable than originally envisioned. The assumption of perfect capital markets is incorporated in a model which suggests that a rise in real interest rates more than nominal rates as well as the nature of debt determines the extent of business failure.

Research, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Debt financing (Corporations), Debt financing, Bankruptcy

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Time-varying risk premia and the term structure of forward exchange rates

Article Abstract:

Analysis of experiments conducted to assess the time varying risk premia reveals that forward exchange rates for varied horizons can be utilized to predict the existence of risk premia in the forward foreign exchange market. The apparent bias in forward rates can be attributed to distinct differences between market inefficiency and risk premia.

Analysis, Risk management, Foreign exchange

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