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Reproduction rates in multiregion modeling systems for HIV/AIDS

Article Abstract:

Reproduction rates for a multiregion HIV/AIDS model were derived as well as their associated critical thresholds that estimate the minimum population of susceptibles necessary for an epidemic to begin. The resulting statistics were interpreted for a simplified global setting representing regional variations in the potential onset of HIV/AIDS. The potential applicability of these results to understanding HIV/AIDS prevention was discussed.

Author: Thomas, Richard
Publisher: Blackwell Publishers Ltd.
Publication Name: Journal of Regional Science
Subject: Social sciences
ISSN: 0022-4146
Year: 1999
Research and Development in the Physical, Engineering, and Life Sciences, Research and Testing Services, Viral Disease R&D, Population, Analysis, HIV infection, HIV infections, Viral research, AIDS (Disease), Reproduction (Biology), AIDS research, Reproduction, Population research

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A spatial prior for Bayesian vector autoregressive models

Article Abstract:

A Bayesian prior motivated by cross-sectional spatial autoregressive models for use in time-series vectors autoregressive forecasting involving spatial variables was developed. It was shown that the proposed spatial prior produced forecasts with much lower mean absolute percentage errors. The model also produced forecast errors that exhibited lower dispersion over the 30-month forecasting period in a number of cases.

Author: LeSage, James P., Krivelyova, Anna
Publisher: Blackwell Publishers Ltd.
Publication Name: Journal of Regional Science
Subject: Social sciences
ISSN: 0022-4146
Year: 1999
Forecasting, Models, Mathematical models, Business forecasting, Autoregression (Statistics), Spatial systems

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