Long-term diffusion factors of technological development: an evolutionary model and case study

Article Abstract:

The model of substitution-diffusion processes can be applied to predict future shares of given technologies and to form alternative scenarios of future evolution of a market structure. The model exhibits flexibility in dealing with several technologies and allows easy gathering of data necessary to make predictions or form scenarios of development. The model can also be used to estimate influences of technologies characteristics on the values of indices of competitiveness of various technologies.

Innovations, Technology, Industry, Industries

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The role of capital intensity and technology usage in upgrading skills in the U.S. labor market

Article Abstract:

Capital deepening and computer investments have been proven to create a significant impact on the dynamism of wage share of skilled workers in the US. Empirical results gathered between the 1960-1990 period revealed that variables involving computer investments create greater effect on the wage share of skilled workers than noncomputer factors. A positive correlation between capital measures and skill mix was also established, providing concrete proof to the capital-skill complementarity concept.

Information Systems, Forecasting, Equipment Purchasing, Research, Purchasing, Usage, Computers, Digital computers, Information technology, Capital investments, Business forecasting

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What have we learned?

Article Abstract:

The process of forecasting trends in technological innovations is one that has gone through a number of developments through the years. From the S-curve models of the 1960s to the 'limits' model of the 1970s to 'Integrated Assessment Models' and the 'computable general equilibrium' models of the late 1990s. It is increasingly becoming obvious that technological progress is a factor that is dependent on both economic relationships and trends.

Forecasts and trends

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