The polls - review: was 1996 a worse year for polls than 1948?

Article Abstract:

A public opinion research expert was to trigger widespread negative media opinion of 1996 election forecasting when he claimed that pre-election and exit polls conducted during the 1996 elections were exceptionally flawed and, overall, a disaster. This expert claimed that the 1996 polls had so erroneously overestimated Pres Bill Clinton's margin of victory that the 1948 polls, by comparison, were closer to a triumph. A study is conducted to assess the efficacy of various approaches to measuring poll accuracy. Results are applied to a comparison of the 1948 and 1996 polls.

Standards, Measurement, Public opinion polls

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The polls - a review

Article Abstract:

Researchers can obtain accurate predictions about election results by using well-designed exit polls. The exit polls taken during the Virginia gubernatorial election in 1989, however, were inaccurate. Research on this outcome indicated that face-to-face interviews resulted in the mis-reporting of votes. A black and a white candidate were running for governor, and some of the white voters may have felt pressured to give the socially desired response by telling interviewers that they were voting for the black candidate.

Social aspects, Evaluation

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Reducing vote overreporting in surveys: social desirability, memory failure, and source monitoring

Article Abstract:

An experimental version of the voter-turnout question proved superior to the standard version in reducing the rate at which respondents reported having voted as well as the level of vote overreporting. This was gleaned from two split-ballot experiments on the voter-turnout question, which is influenced by memory failure, social desirability and source monitoring. The experimental version was also effective in reducing overreports at the later interview dates.

Psychological aspects, Political aspects, Elections, Memory, Voting, Social desirability

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