Tourism demand forecasting: A time varying parameter error correction model

Article Abstract:

The error correction model (ECM) and the time varying parameter (TVP) model pertaining to tourism forecasting are combined into a single-equation model called the time varying parameter error correction model (TVP-ECM) to forecast the demand for tourism. Empirical evidence supports the usefulness of the TVP-ECM model for the effective formulation of tourism policies and strategies, and confirms its enhanced forecasting accuracy over various fixed-parameter econometric models.

United Kingdom, Forecasts, trends, outlooks, Forecasts and trends, Market trend/market analysis

---

Effects of news shock on inbound tourist demand volatility in Korea

Article Abstract:

The concepts and theories relating to conditional heteroscedastic volatility models and the news impact curve are introduced and applied in the analysis of the tourist market of Korea. Findings include the existence of monthly seasonality in conditional mean equations, the existence of asymmetric effects from the EGARCH and TARCH models, and the persistence of the impact of news shock on monthly tourist arrivals into Korea in the estimation of the GARCH model.

North Korea

---

Modeling seasonality in tourism forecasting

Article Abstract:

Autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) is used for modeling stochastic nonstationary seasonality and requires first and fourth differences to achieve stationary. ARIMA considers the series only in first differences and seasonality is modeled with a constant and three seasonal dummies.

United States, Analysis, Environmental aspects, Seasonal variations (Economics)

Similar abstracts:

• Abstracts: Testing times for bouncers. Safety in numbers
• Abstracts: Gas prices not affecting free shipping promotions, according to study. High gas prices may cause holiday spending to take a hit
• Abstracts: A structural analysis of destination travel intentions as a function of Web site features. Structuring destination image: A qualitative approach

This website is not affiliated with document authors or copyright owners. This page is provided for informational purposes only. Unintentional errors are possible.