Sea-level rise or fall?
Article Abstract:
General overconfidence in the extent of current knowledge about environmental changes including such factors as climate, population and energy use mean that models of projected global environmental changes are even more undependable than S. Schneider suggested. For instance, a prediction that sea levels will rise can easily be changed to a prediction that they will fall simply by altering the values of assumed parameters. Such predictive models must be more thoroughly quantified based on historical trends of parameter values.
Publication Name: Nature
Subject: Zoology and wildlife conservation
ISSN: 0028-0836
Year: 1992
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The elusive Arctic warming
Article Abstract:
Arctic Ocean surface temperatures recorded between 1950 and 1990 failed to detect the warming trend that would confirm the greenhouse-related rise in atmospheric temperature required by widely-accepted global climate models. In fact, Arctic Ocean temperatures went down during this period rather than up. However, these Arctic temperatures should be interpreted cautiously since they do not include data from marginal ice zones where the effects of global warming would be more apparent.
Publication Name: Nature
Subject: Zoology and wildlife conservation
ISSN: 0028-0836
Year: 1993
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The timing of Pleistocene glaciations from a simple multiple-state climate model
Article Abstract:
It has been possible to develop two basic models that reproduce quite well the succession of glacial-interglacial cycles over the late Pleistocene. The first model has three separate states: interglacial, mild glacial and full glacial. The second model is an extension of the first. The three state-model was found to be quite resilient to changes in its parameters. It is clear that the geological record can easily be explained in the framework of the classical astronomical theory.
Publication Name: Nature
Subject: Zoology and wildlife conservation
ISSN: 0028-0836
Year: 1998
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