The anchor and adjustment heuristic in time-series forecasting
Article Abstract:
Previous studies have shown a tendency among people to rely on their judgment when it comes to business forecasting. Researchers have advanced several theories to explain this phenomenon. One of the few studies on the behavior of judgmental forecasters and their biases have suggested that these forecasters rely on heuristics and exhibit cognitive biases similar to those found in other forecasters. The feasibility of using anchor and adjustment heuristic to describe the behavior of forecasters using real time series is evaluated.
Publication Name: Journal of Forecasting
Subject: Mathematics
ISSN: 0277-6693
Year: 1995
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Linear signal extraction with intervention techniques in non-linear time series
Article Abstract:
The ARIMA-model-based (AMB) signal extraction method estimates components of a seasonally adjusting time series based on observed data from the series. Use of the AMB linear signal extraction through the Wiener-Kolmogorov filter is restricted by approximation standards applied for the series. Thus, intervention techniques are used to linearize the time series. However, these techniques are only effective where non-linearities influence unconditional moments of order higher than two.
Publication Name: Journal of Forecasting
Subject: Mathematics
ISSN: 0277-6693
Year: 1998
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Modifying quantitative forecasts of livestock production using expert judgements: an application to the Australian lamb industry
Article Abstract:
Organizations which provide outlook information on agricultural commodities often subject their model-derived forecasts to judgmental modification by industry experts. Judgmental modifications of quantitative forecasts allow the incorporation of current period information into forecast value and ensure that the forecast is realistic in the light of current industry trends. The use of judgmental modification in the Australian lamb industry's production forecasts is evaluated.
Publication Name: Journal of Forecasting
Subject: Mathematics
ISSN: 0277-6693
Year: 1995
User Contributions:
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