Predictive judgments in situations of statistical analysis

Article Abstract:

A study exploring the intuitive probabilistic judgments of researchers in situations of statistical prediction was conducted on 50 Parisian researchers. Results indicate a difference in predictive judgements about the difference of means and the significance test statistic. Predictive judgments on the difference of means were coherent but incoherent on the test statistic. Significance tests are an object of bias.

Author: Lecoutre, Marie-Paule, Rouanet, Henry
Multivariate analysis, Statistical hypothesis testing

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Gain-loss framing and choice: separating outcome formulations from descriptor formulations

Article Abstract:

Research examining the theory formulated by A. Tversky and D. Kahneman to illustrate gain-loss formulation effects is presented. Particular attention is given to arguments claiming that the th effects obtained by the two scientists could have been due to asymmetries in the sure-risky prospects.

Author: Mandel, David R.
Positive thinking (Psychology), Axiom of choice

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When equal chances = good chances: verbal probabilities and the equiprobability effect

Article Abstract:

Research examining the the differences between numerical and verbal estimates of probability is presented, with particular application to the case of several qualified applicants competing one job. It is concluded that verbal estimates reflect a more positive estimate of probability.

Author: Teigen, Karl Halvor
Subjectivity

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Subjects list: Research, Probabilities, Probability theory, Cases, Brief Article, Psychological research
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