Learning to live with recessions

Article Abstract:

The key issue facing economic policy-makers in the UK is whether the downward swing of the economic cycle necessarily leads to a serious recession. The late economist Christopher Dow argues in his book 'Major Recessions' that there are ways in which governments can reduce the possibility of a sudden decline in business and consumer confidence. It is possible to state that the UK may be able to manage its way through the early years of the 21st century more effectively than most developed countries.

Prevention

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Our economic slowdown could be the South Downs or the Matterhorn

Article Abstract:

It is difficult to identify the factors which will determine the pace at which economic growth in the UK slows down and the extent of that slowdown. It is possible that these factors will be external, rather than internal. They could include a shift towards economic slowdown in the US and the repercussions of the economic crisis in East Asia. Manipulating economic policy in the UK would probably make it possible to engineer a gentle economic slowdown, but external factors may make this impossible.

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Recession talk will stop the real thing

Article Abstract:

It has become widely accepted in the UK that a recession will come. However, it is important to remember that any future recession will not necessarily affect the whole economy. An economy-wide recession can be avoided, as long as the government does not intervene in a misguided way. The strongest protection against a general recession in the whole of the economy is the fear of recession. A recession need not take place precisely because it is widely anticipated.

Forecasts and trends

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